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XIII/1/2022
INTERDISCIPLINARIA ARCHAEOLOGICA
NATURAL SCIENCES IN ARCHAEOLOGY
homepage: http://www.iansa.eu
The Habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC):
Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
George Malaperdas
1*
, Christoflis Maggidis
2
, Ef Karantzali
3
, Nikolaos Zacharias
1
1
Laboratory of Archaeometry, University of Peloponnese, Old Campus, 241 33 Kalamata, Greece
2
Mycenaean Foundation, Mycenae Lower Town Excavation, 212 00 Mycenae, Greece
3
Ephorate of Antiquities of Phthiotida and Eurytania, Castle of Lamia, 351 00, Lamia, Greece
1. Introduction
A new fve-year feld project commenced in 2018 under the
directorship and auspices of the local Ephorate of Antiquities
with the collaboration of Dickinson College, the Geophysics
Laboratory of the Aristotelian University of Thessaloniki,
the Architectural Design and Research Laboratory of
the Democritus University of Thrace, the Archaeometry
Laboratory of the University of the Peloponnese, and the
support of the Mycenaean Foundation, the Municipality of
Lamia, and the Prefecture of Central Greece. The Mycenaean
Spercheios-valley Archaeological (MY.SPE.AR.) project
combines extensive and intensive archaeological survey
work, aerial reconnaissance, a geophysical survey, targeted
excavation, and digital technology in order to locate, identify,
and map all Mycenaean sites in the region of the Spercheios
valley.
The study area is located in Central Greece and, more
specifcally, in the wider area of the Spercheios river valley
in the Prefecture of Fthiotida (Figure 1). The Spercheios
valley, wedged in-between Thessaly and Boeotia, divides
the regions of central and southern Greece allowing only for
a narrow shoreline passageway between them. The valley is
nearly land-locked, surrounded on three sides by mountain
ranges (Mt. Othris, Mt. Oiti, Mt. Timphristos) that delineate
clear regional boundaries, while allowing, however, eastward
access to the sea (Maliakos Gulf). The Spercheios river fows
from the west to the east for some 85 km, meandering toward
Volume XIII ● Issue 1/2022 ● Pages 29–39
*Corresponding author. E-mail: envcart@yahoo.gr
ARTICLE INFO
Article history:
Received: 22
nd
March 2021
Accepted: 1
st
February 2022
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24916/iansa.2022.1.3
Key words:
MTC
predictive model
GIS
ancient topography
land surveying
Spercheios
ABSTRACT
The initial goal of the Mycenaean Spercheios-Valley Archaeological Project (MY.SPE.AR.) is
to undertake a systematic archaeogeophysical survey of the Spercheios Valley in central Greece.
The extensive and intensive survey focuses on locating, documenting, mapping and analysing
environmental features in correlation with the archaeological remains of Mycenaean sites in the region.
This documentation and analysis have already commenced and will be further implemented with use
of technologies such as Mobile GPS, UAV photography, satellite imagery analysis, remote sensing,
spatial analysis with GIS, test pits and trial trenches.
The aim of this paper is to examine and compare the results of the standard MTC prediction model
method applied in Messenia with another location, that of the valley of Spercheios, in Fthiotida, Greece.
In the spatial analysis carried out in Messenia, common features were observed for all the residential
places, which in no case could be characterised as random, while the structure of the administration
of the society presented characteristics that were compatible with a hierarchical distinction of the
functions of each residential ensemble.
The key question is whether we can observe these same characteristics that determine a habitation
site (geomorphological, climatological, and geological) in another region. This comparison between
two major study areas (the regions of Messenia and the wider valley of Spercheios) may contribute to
archaeological research generally by posing new questions and methods of examination of the broader
landscape in an area of archaeological interest.
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George Malaperdas, Christoflis Maggidis, Ef Karantzali, Nikolaos Zacharias: The Habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC):
Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
30
its delta-shaped outlet in the Maliakos Gulf and dividing its
basin into a northern and southern part. The southern part is
the one that presents the most intense relief, with the highest
elevation (Maggidis
et al.
, 2021; Psomiades, 2010).
The diference between the two parts is caused by the fact
that the central bed of the river Spercheios lies in a tectonic
depression, where the southern part rises while the northern
part sinks (Figure 2) due to the earthquake fault of Atalanti
(Mariolakos, 1970; Gartzos and Stamatis, 1996; Tzanis
et al.
, 2010; Mentzafou
et al.,
2020). The hydrologic system
of the basin, which includes the river and six main tributaries,
forms a well-watered fertile valley with rich alluvial soil
(described by Homer as “large-lumped”
Ιliad
Ι.155, ΙΧ.363)
and having its own micro-climates (Efthimiou
et al.,
2015,
Mertzanis
et al.,
2018, Spyrou
et al.
, 2021).
The total size of the Spercheios valley area amounts to
683,225 acres (276,610 ha), while its perimeter is about
165 kilometres. Administratively the area belongs to two
municipalities, the Municipality of Lamia (the largest part,
79%), and the Municipality of Makrakomi, the rest (21%) of
the total study area (Figure 3a). Regarding the administrative
division of the area, it is worth mentioning that the entire
study area includes 44 local communities, 33 of which are
under the Municipality of Lamia and the other 11 under the
Municipality of Makrakomi.
The selected boundaries of the study area were chosen
such that they are identical and tangential to the already
implemented boundaries of the local communities (Figure
3b). This was done for two main reasons: frstly, the use of
the already existing boundaries would make the descriptive
identifcation of the land easier when determining positions,
and for the writing of necessary technical reports to
the authorities and institutions involved; secondly, the
geographical simplifcation of the boundary design would
require no new key of spatial design features to be identifed.
Furthermore, there was no restriction on the geographical
distribution of space. The extended proposal of the
convergence of the geographical boundaries with those of
the study area was chosen, even though they are separated
from the natural geomorphological characteristics such as
rivers, gorges, mountains,
etc.
(Malaperdas and Zacharias,
2018; Malaperdas, 2019; Malaperdas and Zacharias, 2019).
The modern coastal area and the delta of the river Spercheios
were not included in the archaeological investigation, since
these areas have been largely silted up with alluvial deposits
from the river in post-Mycenaean periods.
In June 2018, the archaeogeophysical survey commenced
in the Lamia Municipality under the directorship and
auspices of the local Ephorate of Antiquities, focusing
initially on sites documented from publications and previous
feld reports (Simpson and Lazenby, 1959; Kase, 1972; Kase,
1973; Chourmouziadis, 1979; Simpson, 1981; Dakoronia,
1991; Dakoronia, 1994; Dakoronia, 1999; Karantzali,
2013; Karantzali and McGeorge, 2013; Karantzali, 2016;
Karantzali, 2018; Maggidis
et al
.,2021). Using DGPS and
mobile GPS devices, sites excavated or discovered in the
past were located, identifed and recorded along with new
sites found throughout the survey area. These coordinates,
accompanied by photographs and descriptions, were imported
to ArcGIS for further geospatial and geomorphological
analysis, and also included aspect, slope, hydrology, geo-
seismic evidence, geomorphology and geology of the area.
In order to accomplish this, a TOPCON GPS positioning
station was utilised to collect archaeological data, spatially
integrate data into the area, and record the coordinates of
archaeological sites on-site. The phase “kinematic approach”
Figure 1.
Site location on the map of
Greece.
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Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
31
(RTK – Real Time Kinematic) was applied by the TOPCON
GPS station to precisely calculate a location with a variance
of a few millimetres to one centimetre. The Transverse
Mercator Projection TM87 of the Greek Geodetic Reference
System 1987 (EGSA ‘87) was used to gather coordinates
and analyse data. The Greek Geodetic Reference System
(GGRS87) is a uniform projection system that is utilised in
both the private and public sectors in Greece.
In the feld survey, priority was given to visiting sites
that had been excavated or located in the past. The research
team physically visited all these locations, which have only
been mentioned descriptively in the bibliography. Field trips
were organised in collaboration with the local Ephorate
of Antiquities and with the guidance of local guards and
workmen. During these visits, the research team would
also inspect the local geomorphology and environment (on
foot and with the use of a drone-mounted camera) in order
to identify signifcant natural features or essential sources
in the vicinity of the located sites (
e.g.
, low hills and water
sources for settlements, soft bedrock for cemeteries of rock-
cut chamber tombs) as potential diagnostic evidence for
inhabitation. As a result, eight new sites, so far unknown,
were located and identifed in the process, thus enabling
the application of geocumulative geospatial analysis
Figure 2.
The topographic sections in the basin of Spercheios (edited by Karli, 2013).
Figure 3.
a) The administrative division of the study area within the boundaries of the municipalities. b) The administrative division of the study area based
on the boundaries of the local communities.
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Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
32
and frequency/spatial distribution models to explore the
interaction between environment and site distribution, trace
contact patterns and hierarchical dynamics among sites,
and identify second-order centres and possibly a frst-order
administrative centre in the region. The use of GPS in the
feld was highly efective for recording coordinates and geo-
referencing, but also for plotting, positioning, laying out,
and measuring equal parallel transects for the systematic
feld survey of selected sites by the research team. All the
data collected from the feld survey, in combination with
the bibliographic references and the pre-existing GIS data,
formed the framework for the partial reconstruction of the
historical landscape. As the research continues all the new
data and the small discrepancies that may occur will be
incorporated into the model.
2. Methods
The methodology provided in this work is based on the
latest knowledge of the predictive models that we currently
use now, with the goal of evolving them and proposing
an overall new way of thinking about predictive models in
the future. These new models also take into account a crucial
factor: the incorporation of critical thinking into each
model’s decision-making process. The new model proposed
in this study is called the Model Trend Calculation (MTC),
and it is based on Popper’s Three Worlds theory (Popper,
1978). Since the idea of critical thinking is a basic principle
in epistemology, a theorem based on Popper’s Three Worlds
theory was established to defne the new model (MTC) in
a decision-making framework and simplify it in terms of
future use by researchers. The full analysis of the habitation
Model Trend Calculation (MTC) has been presented in detail
by Malaperdas and Zacharias (Malaperdas and Zacharias,
2019).
The MTC prediction model incorporates a number of
criteria deemed critical in the selection of a habitation
location. The MTC model was also modifed to meet the
requirements of research by creating multiple raster fles that
were multiplied by their respective weights (Saha, Gupta,
and Arora, 2002; Pandey, Dabral, and Chowdary, 2008;
Kouli, Loupasakis, and Soupios, 2010).
The central idea of a predictive model based on Popper’s
Three Worlds theory ofers signifcant advantages over past
predictive models, including recent publications (Argyriou
et.al
, 2017; Oguz-Kirza, 2017; Healey
et. al
., 2017), and
theoretically it can serve as a guide for future Archaeological
Sites Prediction models.
Unlike all previous prediction models, this one is unique
in that it introduces the concept of causality, or the causal
relationship between two events (cause and efect), when the
second situation emerges with certainty from the frst. With
this critical thinking, the researcher not only understands
the model’s probable consequences, but also the precise
application of each indicator (index) utilised. Furthermore, the
indicators can be revalidated utilising physical observations
of the investigated items, as well as the viewpoint of crucial
social elements of the observer and the studied case, through
the model itself. As a result, there is a clear cause-and-efect
relationship (Malaperdas and Zacharias, 2019).
One example of the elevation parameter, which is widely
encountered in archaeological publications and prediction
models, will be examined in order to better expound
on this subject. The elevation quantifcation is usually
deemed sufcient when examining a site in terms of its
geomorphological data. However, the elevation parameter
alone does not provide a complete picture of the investigated
location, because a 100-metre-elevated site could be at the
top of a small hill, serving as an observatory, or at the edge
of a large mountain range, in the centre of a wide plain or
between two tight valleys; in each case the archaeological
perception and interpretation would be diferent (Malaperdas
and Zacharias, 2019).
In the MTC model, the precise location is thoroughly stated
based on all these geomorphological parameters, in order to
study all the elements that will give the whole geomorphology
of the site location with the maximum degree of precision.
The Hillslope Classifcation index is coupled with the specifc
elevation, which examines all probable possibilities for a
particular location, ranging from being at the top of a hill
to successive subcategories down to ground level (valley
foor). Subsequently, the result uses the Topographical Index
to determine the accuracy of the position in relation to the
site’s broader geomorphology, which answers the question of
whether the sites are located in a valley or in a hilly area, and
at what degree of terrain inclination. Finally, the parameter of
Landform Classifcation is used to determine with absolute
accuracy the position under examination, indicating whether
a site is located on a hill, mountain, canyon, or on a plain
(Malaperdas and Zacharias, 2019).
In this way, the question of habitation position in relation
to the geomorphology factor examined by the predictive
model is fully answered; moreover, not only is a numerical
determination of the position provided, but new questions
can be generated, creating thoughts and discussions in the
archaeological community. The climatic (with the data
analysed relating to indexes of Aspect, Solar Radiation, Heat
Load and Wind Intensity) and geological factors (with the
data analysed relating to Geological Formation, Wetness
Index, and Distance from the Hydrographic Network) also
lead to similar results (Malaperdas and Zacharias, 2019).
3. Theories and reasoning
The Mycenaean world fourished in the 14
th
and 13
th
century
BC (circa 1420/1410–1200/1175 BC). This period (LH
IIIA/B) is marked by regional centralisation of power, state
formation, and advanced socio-economic organisation,
geared towards an efcient surplus, local production and
overseas trade, coordinated and regulated by the palace
administration and sustained by palatial bureaucracy. In the
homeland, the Mycenaean palaces were fortifed into citadels,
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33
public works were carried out, agricultural production and
farming were systematised (Shelmerdine, 2001; Shelmerdine
and Bennet, 2008); abroad, the Mycenaean’s assumed
control over the Minoan colonies and trade outposts in the
Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, and further expanded
to the east and west, thus frmly establishing their own
trade network and successfully succeeding the Minoans in
overseas trade (Iakovidis, 1974; Kantor, 1997; Maggidis,
2009; Karantzali, 2005). The Mycenaean political geography
comprised a network of several Mycenaean palace-states
that emerged at key inland, coastal or island locations in
the Peloponnese, southern mainland Greece, and Crete,
achieving striking cultural homogeneity and uniformity in
material culture (palatial architecture, ceramic styles, script
and language, burial customs and religion) with regional
variations and local traditions, known as Mycenaean koine
(14
th
– 13
th
century BC) (Shelmerdine, 2001; Treuil Rene
et al.
, 1990). Mycenae was the primary centre of this period
and was frst to be discovered by Schliemann in 1874. Thus,
Aegean prehistory was established with the excavations of
Schliemann. His fndings at Mycenae were so impressive
that it was considered natural to use the term “Mycenaean”
for similar archaeological sites found in the following years
at many Aegean sites (Dickinson, 1994; Sprakes, 2002).
In the course of the 12
th
century BC, the cumulative efect
of combined, rapid and dramatic changes in several socio-
economic, political, and environmental variables, triggered
by events-catalysts, afected a fragile balance, thus resulting
in catastrophic systems collapse which caused the decline
and fall of several interconnected states and empires in the
Mediterranean (Knapp and Manning, 2016; Cline, 2014;
Maggidis, 2009). In Mycenaean Greece, the deterioration
of the same system that had supported central palatial
authority resulted inevitably in the rapid dissolution of
palatial power, and the decentralisation and fragmentation
of the Mycenaean palace states (Lemos and Kotsonas, 2020;
Knapp and Manning, 2016; Middleton, 2010; Maggidis,
2009; Shelmerdine, 2001).The collapse of the palatial system
was accelerated by internal conficts, which brought either
the Mycenaean states against each other or diferent classes
of the population (Hooker, 1976). It was the Mycenaean
elite and its diagnostic elements (palatial administration and
writing, foreign contacts and luxury goods, monumental
art and architecture, representational arts and crafts) that
sufered the most from the system meltdown, whereas at
the lower level the impact was less direct; despite poverty,
isolation, and depopulation on the mainland, the remaining
core of Mycenaean society changed more gradually in terms
of basic material culture and cultural practices, evolving
organically into the Early Iron Age Greece (Karouzou, 2020;
Livieratou, 2020; Maggidis, 2019; Knapp and Manning,
2016; Livieratou, 2012; Maggidis, 2009; Lemos, 2002;
Shelmerdine, 2001).
The region of the Spercheios valley features certain
environmental, geomorphological, agrarian, and geopolitical
parameters that, if considered collectively, may be construed
as diagnostic formative elements of Mycenaean palace
states. Due to its key geopolitical location at the crossroads
between powerful Mycenaean palace states on either side
(Iolkos in the north; Orchomenos, Thebes, and Glas in the
south) and other adjacent areas with strong Mycenaean
presence (Lokris, Euboea), this region could exert control
on land routes and regulate local and interregional trade
(Simpson and Lazenby, 1959; Kase, 1972; Kase, 1973; Kase
et al.
1991; Karantzali, 2013, p.151; Maggidis
et al.
, 2021).
Furthermore, the Spercheios valley is agronomically ideal
for large-scale agriculture in terms of land size, irrigation,
soil quality, and its potential for intensifcation of cultivation
and extensifcation of arable land, thus securing local
autonomy, self-sufciency, and probably surplus (Maggidis
et al.
, 2021).
Paradoxically, however, the archaeological map of the
Spercheios region is incompatible with its geopolitical
importance and economic potential. In the last two centuries,
archaeological feldwork has been carried out sporadically
in the Spercheios valley (Marinatos, 1940) with rather poor
results, partially because feld research often aimed not
at the surrounding hills (habitual location of Mycenaean
settlements), but at the modern valley foor; it was therefore
being hindered by local geological processes (deep silting
from the river and the sinking of the southern part of the
valley foor by 10–20 metres). Recent work by the local
archaeological Ephorate (Chourmouziadis, 1979; Dakoronia,
1991; Dakoronia, 1994; Dakoronia, 1999; Papakonstantinou
and Sakkas, 2010; Karantzali, 2013; Karantzali, 2016;
Karantzali, 2020, pp.906–907) has located and partially
excavated a few Mycenaean sites and cemeteries, such as the
important cemetery at Kompotades, that has yielded large
chamber tombs with exquisite fnds, imported luxury goods,
and artifacts of high social status – thus indicating a region
that may be moderately secluded but not isolated, combining
local autonomy and self-sufciency with interregional
contacts (Karantzali, 2013; Karantzali and McGeorge, 2013;
Karantzali, 2018; Karantzali, 2021).
Dickinson states that
“The climate, the landscape, and the
natural resources of Greece must always be considered in
every historical study because they are directly related to the
possibilities of the evolution of societies”
(Dickinson, 1994).
The same point of view is also shared by other researchers.
Nowadays, we know that the ancient Greeks, at least from
the classical era onwards, had special knowledge of the
bioclimatic conditions prevailing in a place and tried to exploit
them (Hughes, 1994; Bradshaw and Sykes, 2014; Solari,
2019). In Xenophon’s memoirs (Apomnemoneumata III.8.8-
10), Socrates speaks of the ideal solar house (Pantelakis,
1937). At the same time, Hippocrates (On Airs, Waters
and Places, I.1.1-16), prefgured the principles of modern
bioclimatic architecture (Barrois, 1816). The core of all the
theories developed at that time was to ensure a harmonious
relationship between man and his environment. Aristotle
(
Politics
A.1
)
remarks that ensuring the right climatic
conditions is the overriding priority for the establishment
of the ideal city, since, in addition to the issue of public
health, climatic conditions will also play an enormous role
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George Malaperdas, Christoflis Maggidis, Ef Karantzali, Nikolaos Zacharias: The Habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC):
Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
34
in the self-sufciency of food by determining the crop of the
felds (Tzioka-Evangelou, 2009). In particular, the climate,
soil quality, and irrigation potential are key factors for the
success of a crop and therefore the welfare of the inhabitants.
Of the total study area in Messenia and on the basis of
the residential classifcation, as presented in their paper
(Malaperdas and Zacharias, 2019), the two hierarchically
most important categories of settlements were selected to be
examined. These constitute thirty (30) of the one hundred
and forty (140) Mycenaean settlements of Messenia and
characterising classes of Centres and Large Villages. The
rationale for this choice is that these two categories, apart
from the importance of the sites themselves (based on the
archaeological fnds, the area occupied by the number of
sherds found, the existence of vaulted tombs in association
with the sites, and the bibliographic references), are at the
same time the clearest example of correlations.
These correlations cannot be random for two main reasons:
(a) the factorisation criteria are sufcient in number (twelve,
to be randomly identifed in such a large and diverse area as
the one occupied by the prefecture of Messenia), and (b) the
close values of the sample in the Ideal Value
of conditions
of the model horizon (closed sets) verify that specifc
conditions prevail in the choice of place of residence by the
Mycenaeans in Messenia. Consequently, as the categories
decrease hierarchically, there is a gradual corresponding
departure from the Ideal Value.
It should be noted that the number of Mycenaean
settlements found in the valley of Spercheios is much smaller.
For this reason, and in order to reduce as much as possible
Figure 4.
A GIS cartographic composition of the Examining Factors.
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Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
35
the inequality of the number of places between these two
study areas, we decided to fnally focus on the frst two and
most powerful habitation categories.
4. Results: Applying the model; the case study of Fthiotida
In the second study case, in the Prefecture of Fthiotida, new
characteristic data were observed which difer from the frst
case study, that of the Prefecture of Messenia. For this reason,
the MTC model was adapted and reconfgured based on the
new conditions we encountered in Fthiotida. After analysing
the data for each habitation site, the weight of the factors was
redefned and the factors were recalibrated, giving the fnal
classes of the model (Figure 4).
More specifcally, for the creation of the fnal prediction
map of the MTC model, all the parameters with the
corresponding weighting factor were used. The three factors
(Geomorphological, Climatological, and Geological)
operated together to give an aggregate of the fnal result and
more specifcally, the following equation was used:
MTC = 0.372 * FMr + 0.274 * FCl + 0.354 * FGl
1
Likewise, these parameters in the MTC model that were
developed for the prefecture of Messenia, were classifed
into fve fnal categories, ranked from those with the lowest
satisfaction rates of the model’s criteria to those with higher
values, which are also the areas with the highest probability
of habitation (Figure 5).
There were ten places considered residential sites.
Based on the predictive map, six of them were classifed in
category 4 (moderate to high probability), three in category
5 (high probability), and only one, in category 3 (moderate
probability).
The initial observation is that the model gave satisfactory
results as nine of the ten residential sites were classifed in
the highest settlement probability categories of the model
(Categories 4 and 5) while only one of them was in the
immediately lower one (Category 3).
It is also noteworthy that for the frst two categories of the
model (Category 1: low probability and Category 2: low to
moderate probability) and despite the fact that they occupy
a signifcant percentage (37%) of the total study area, none
of the examining sites are located in such areas.
One of the main criticisms of the prediction models is
the fact that most of the time researchers are satisfed with
a computer image, which is extracted by the model, without
the possibility of matching this data with the necessary
archaeological research and feld examination, at least
for those selected sites that have a higher probability of
prediction.
This is mainly because the frst site prediction models
were developed for environmental, ecological and spatial
studies. When, for example, a waste treatment plant had to be
sited, with specifc conditions and constraints, the scientists
examined the locations derived from the model, without the
need for on-site investigation and autopsy, which is not the
case for archaeological research.
1
Where ΜTC represents the residential suitability index, FMr represents
the Factor GeoMorphology, FCl stands for the Factor Climate and FGl
represents the Factor Geology.
MTC = 0.045 * Elvindex + 0.088 * Slpindex + 0.118 * HClindex + 0.066
* LFrindex + 0.055 * TPIindex + 0.105 * Aspindex + 0.054 * Solindex
+ 0.052 * Htlindex + 0.063 * Wndindex + 0.149 0.079 Wetindex +
0.126 * Hydindex - where Elvindex = Elevation Index, Slpindex = Slope
Index, HClindex = Hillslope Classifcation Index, LFrindex = Landform
Classifcation Index, TPiindex = Terrain Position Index, Aspindex = Aspect
Index, Solindex = Solar Radiation Index, Ht Load Index, Wndindex =
Wind Intensity Index, Glfndex = Geological Formation Index, Wetindex =
Wetness Index, Hydindex = Hydrographic approximate Index.
Figure 5.
Predictive map of the MTC model applied in the Spercheios Valley case study.
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36
For this reason, and following the completion of the MTC
model prediction results, two in situ surveys, were carried out
on indicative, high probability sites (Category 5) suggested
by the model in collaboration with the project archaeologists
in charge of the MY.SPE.AR. Project (Figure 6). Sites were
selected in areas of high-density concentration and where
there is potential for feldwork, avoiding private land as far
as possible. Sites that yielded archaeological material (shells,
pottery, stone tools) during the surveys were reported to the
competent authorities for further investigation.
Finally, the required surveying were conducted, a list of
eight (8) new sites was created, derived from the model
and presented visually on the Google Earth map (Figure 7).
Again, all the locations relate to high probability areas based
on the prediction model. As part of the MY.SPE.AR. Project,
surface surveys are planned to be carried out at some or all
of the new locations.
5. Discussion
If we compare the same features between the two diferent
study areas examined in this paper, signifcant diferences
are observed. This is only logical, considering the
geomorphological area of the Spercheios Valley is very
diferent from the landscape in Messenia.
The valley of Spercheios is surrounded on three sides
by high mountains. The highest elevations are found at its
southern and western boundaries, namely, the mountain range
of Vardousia (2,437 m), the mountain of Oiti (2,152 m), and
the ridge of Timfristos (2,316 m). The south-eastern part of
the valley, which exits into the sea, is delineated by Mount
Kallidromo (1,372 m). To the north, Mount Othris (1,727 m)
completes the geomorphology of the area.
The valley of Spercheios is essentially the fat part of
the basin, surrounded by high ridges. Small hills, with
Figure 6.
(a) Field survey in suggested site 1 (b) Archaeological Section after survey in suggested site 2.
Figure 7.
Suggested sites for surveying
based on the MTC model.
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George Malaperdas, Christoflis Maggidis, Ef Karantzali, Nikolaos Zacharias: The Habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC):
Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
37
a maximum elevation of about 200 metres, compose the
landscape of the valley. Regarding the slopes of the terrain,
the whole northern part defned by Mount Othris presents
small and gentle slopes in a smooth relief in contrast to the
southern one, which is formed by the mountain range of Oiti
and has steep morphological slopes in an intense relief with
deep ravines that feed the river Spercheios.
In order to better understand the diference in terms of
the geomorphology we observe that in Messenia the highest
mountain is Mount Taygetos, which is located in the eastern
part of the prefecture (2,407 m). According to Higgins, Mount
Taygetos regulates the climatic conditions for the whole
prefecture; as a result, the rainfall in the Messenia Prefecture is
twice than in the neighbouring Laconia Prefecture, making the
Messenia soils more fertile (Higgins, 1996, p.51). Examining
the study area in terms of climatic factors, no signifcant
diferences are observed with those presented in Messenia,
although in Fthiotida the climate is colder, especially in
the winter months. In general, the climate of the valley of
Spercheios belongs to the subtropical Mediterranean zone, with
hot, dry summers and wet, mild winters, while the areas with
elevations above 500 m are characterised by a mountainous
continental climate with cold winters (Efthymiou
et al.
, 2005).
In terms of geological factors, it should be noted that
almost the entire plain and semi-mountainous part of the
Spercheios valley is composed of Quaternary deposits,
alluvial deposits, ridge cones, lateral ridges, erythrocyte
deposits of the Neolithic age, and sedimentary deposits of
the Pleistocene (Karli, 2013). In other words, porous rocks
are also found here, in extensive and high-yield aquifers
suitable for both cultivation and construction material.
The main diferences and similarities regarding the main
factors and between the two examined areas are summarised
in the Table 1.
6. Conclusions
In summary, the results obtained after the examination
of the factors between the data for the two study areas
display small diferences, mainly in the frst two factors,
those of geomorphology and climatology. The diferent
geomorphology of the two regions contributes to this. The
valley of Spercheios is a lowland area, surrounded by high
mountains that defne the terrain and regulate the climatic
conditions of the entire valley. The region of Messenia
presents a greater diversity in terms of its relief and the area
under examination is much larger. Despite the diferentiation
of the geological layers between the two areas, it is observed
that the habitation sites in both case studies are located in
geological formations suitable for soil fexibility and their
likely usage as building materials for all kinds of construction
by the ancient societies, but also for agricultural exploitation.
However, as mentioned above, it is important to emphasise
the fact that in the case of the Spercheios River valley, the
number of habitation sites is signifcantly reduced compared
to those of the region of Messenia. The data examined appear
to have some common characteristics, but will require new
as well as further data to be able to draw more reliable
conclusions.
On the other hand, the results of the implementation of the
MTC Predictive Model in the region of Fthiotida are clearer
and particularly encouraging. The model appears to be highly
accurate, recognising nine out of ten habitation sites in the
highest occupancy probability categories 4 and 5. It is worth
mentioning here, that, in general, for the forecast model
to be considered satisfactory, the frst two hierarchically
residential categories are expected to be in those categories
of the model: (5) High probability; and (4) Moderate to High
probability.
The important advantages of the MTC prediction model that
apply in the case of the Spercheios valley are the following:
a) It can be easily adapted to questions of interest to the
researcher, incorporating and creating more complex
and critical thinking in the fnal prediction model.
b) It is not just another computer-aided model of
predictive results, but a model that can be a useful
guide to feld archaeological research.
c) Based on the methodology developed for the creation
of the MTC model, access to interdisciplinary
Table 1.
Similarities and diferences between the two cases (Messenia and Fthiotida)
Factor
Main Diferences and Similarities
GeomorphologyThe valley of Spercheios, which is essentially the lowland part of the basin, is a fat area surrounded by high
ridges. Small hills with maximum altitudes of around 200 metres make up the landscape of the valley. In
contrast to Messenia, the highest mountain in the valley is Mount Taygetos, located in the eastern part of the
prefecture, while its geomorphology is varied throughout the western part of the prefecture. Smaller mountains
and hills emerge in the landscape forming many geomorphological variations that during the Mycenaean
period were more favourable to the places of habitation.
ClimateRegarding climatic factors, there are no signifcant diferences between Fthiotida and Messenia, although in
Fthiotida the climate is colder, especially in the winter months.
Regarding the aspect that was the most important climatic factor in the case of Messenia, it is observed that
here too the majority of places are located in lands of a southern orientation in general (Malaperdas and
Panagiotidis, 2017).
Geology
In terms of geological factors, it is observed in both cases that the geological formations around the vast
majority of sites are suitable for both cultivation and construction material.
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George Malaperdas, Christoflis Maggidis, Ef Karantzali, Nikolaos Zacharias: The Habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC):
Ancient Topography – The Mycenaean Spercheios Valley Case Study
38
questions is easier and faster; to some extent, this is
because the factors are already standardised and can
give a better evaluation of the results.
We will continue this research, as – with the completion
of the fve-year project and following the processing and
categorisation of the new sites produced by the project’s
team of archaeologists – we hope to have a new list of more
settlement sites and can review their characteristics and
possible variations. This will be particularly useful, as it will
provide a new insight into the pattern of features; we will
be able to know the sample size that our model will need
in order to work to a satisfactory degree. Finally, with the
planned feldwork at eight (8) more potential sites produced
by the predictive model, we will always be able, with the
help of archaeological feldwork, to test and evaluate the
efectiveness of the predictive model.
Acknowledgements
This project was implemented within the scope of the
“Exceptional Laboratory Practices in Cultural Heritage:
Upgrading Infrastructure and Extending Research
Perspectives of the Laboratory of Archaeometry”, co-
fnanced by Greece and the European Union project under the
auspices of the program “Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship
and Innovation” NSRF 2014–2020.
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